* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 36 42 50 56 60 62 65 68 71 74 76 79 84 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 36 42 50 56 60 62 65 68 71 74 76 79 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 42 48 54 59 65 71 77 82 88 94 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 10 8 2 1 9 11 7 3 5 6 2 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 1 1 0 -7 -4 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 141 151 148 155 171 306 298 321 2 16 50 134 157 78 196 230 158 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 157 161 161 163 156 152 153 158 154 149 152 156 158 160 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 59 59 59 59 63 59 61 60 62 61 55 53 50 50 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 2 -5 -12 -16 -20 -30 -45 -55 -56 -24 -23 -7 -8 10 19 24 200 MB DIV 19 16 7 2 8 -10 -13 -7 20 10 21 -5 1 -10 -21 -32 -19 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -2 1 3 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 600 527 477 430 353 122 99 125 242 376 483 560 595 597 557 483 447 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.1 23.7 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.3 56.2 57.3 58.3 60.6 62.3 63.9 64.8 64.9 64.3 63.3 62.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 81 60 40 41 47 52 91 62 52 60 55 49 47 52 49 55 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 35. 38. 41. 44. 46. 49. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 54.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.82 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 17.9% 11.7% 8.7% 6.2% 13.0% 20.4% 38.8% Logistic: 4.0% 16.3% 11.6% 4.7% 1.5% 5.4% 11.9% 47.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 1.7% Consensus: 2.8% 13.1% 8.5% 4.5% 2.7% 6.5% 10.8% 29.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 7.0% 4.7% 2.7% 1.3% 3.2% 5.4% 14.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 36 42 50 56 60 62 65 68 71 74 76 79 84 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 49 55 59 61 64 67 70 73 75 78 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 44 50 54 56 59 62 65 68 70 73 78 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 36 42 46 48 51 54 57 60 62 65 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT