* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 48 54 59 63 67 70 71 71 70 71 75 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 48 54 59 63 67 70 71 71 70 71 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 50 56 61 66 71 75 77 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 9 11 7 1 6 5 8 4 5 7 11 13 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -7 -7 -2 -5 -1 0 -3 1 1 1 4 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 131 139 145 138 148 211 296 245 310 340 356 291 273 291 305 338 18 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 157 157 163 160 165 154 152 155 155 158 157 158 157 156 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 58 59 62 61 60 59 60 61 59 59 59 56 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 4 -2 -9 -16 -27 -37 -50 -67 -86 -82 -52 -38 -28 -12 2 200 MB DIV 32 22 15 9 -9 -10 -10 -11 6 7 20 -23 17 9 9 -14 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -1 0 -6 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 0 0 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 661 591 527 462 428 251 53 69 116 253 386 481 534 556 542 485 416 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.0 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.5 55.3 56.3 57.2 59.3 61.4 63.0 64.3 65.2 65.4 65.3 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 8 8 6 6 4 1 0 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 86 79 60 41 41 49 62 94 58 61 72 69 67 66 65 61 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 33. 35. 38. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 41. 40. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 53.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 17.3% 11.3% 8.2% 5.8% 12.4% 17.6% 43.6% Logistic: 5.1% 19.8% 14.1% 5.5% 1.9% 6.1% 12.9% 43.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% 7.8% Consensus: 3.1% 13.4% 8.9% 4.6% 2.6% 6.4% 10.6% 31.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 7.2% 4.9% 2.3% 1.3% 3.2% 5.3% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/11/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 36 41 48 54 59 63 67 70 71 71 70 71 75 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 40 47 53 58 62 66 69 70 70 69 70 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 58 62 65 66 66 65 66 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 41 46 50 54 57 58 58 57 58 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT