* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 58 64 68 72 76 79 80 77 76 79 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 58 64 68 72 76 79 80 77 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 42 47 55 63 71 77 82 87 89 90 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 6 8 8 3 3 6 8 10 5 3 10 13 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -5 -4 -1 -7 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 -1 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 108 118 138 142 136 165 315 348 5 352 1 27 292 285 308 324 1 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 156 155 161 160 162 163 154 155 158 160 161 160 160 159 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 58 58 58 61 58 59 56 57 58 59 62 61 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 12 11 7 3 -13 -13 -29 -36 -54 -75 -87 -89 -77 -79 -59 -34 200 MB DIV 15 35 21 16 9 -14 1 -17 -18 -16 4 8 6 20 2 43 1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 728 675 615 542 485 372 153 88 74 148 274 394 482 538 584 599 601 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.1 20.0 20.9 22.0 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 53.6 54.3 55.2 56.1 58.1 60.3 62.0 63.7 64.9 65.7 66.1 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 83 85 79 56 40 46 50 81 78 56 74 91 83 61 46 43 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 28. 34. 38. 42. 46. 49. 50. 47. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 53.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 17.6% 11.5% 8.3% 5.9% 12.5% 16.4% 46.5% Logistic: 6.1% 16.9% 12.3% 4.6% 1.3% 4.9% 12.6% 45.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 3.3% Consensus: 3.6% 12.9% 8.5% 4.3% 2.5% 6.1% 9.9% 31.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/11/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 58 64 68 72 76 79 80 77 76 79 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 41 48 56 62 66 70 74 77 78 75 74 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 44 52 58 62 66 70 73 74 71 70 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 36 44 50 54 58 62 65 66 63 62 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT