* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 31 30 27 25 24 23 23 25 29 33 36 38 43 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 29 28 27 27 29 28 28 28 30 33 37 41 43 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 10 13 15 21 22 18 15 10 14 14 17 17 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 1 3 5 7 3 2 1 0 1 0 1 -2 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 308 314 334 34 64 57 55 61 75 94 142 160 185 193 218 228 245 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.7 25.8 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 153 143 135 114 123 123 120 118 116 116 117 119 120 121 123 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 80 77 75 71 70 69 65 59 53 47 42 38 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 10 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 27 36 49 47 32 19 8 10 -4 -26 -39 -49 -60 -62 -58 200 MB DIV 41 81 56 34 32 7 -15 2 -10 -11 9 -23 -15 -33 -12 -15 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 -1 0 -6 -9 -10 0 7 16 23 24 27 28 28 LAND (KM) 127 89 -14 -147 -298 -203 103 193 269 451 671 856 1099 1350 1613 1840 2047 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.6 97.0 98.6 100.2 103.4 106.5 109.4 112.3 115.3 118.2 121.0 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 12 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 16 4 4 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 94.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 16.0% 10.2% 7.2% 4.5% 9.8% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 10.2% 30.7% 20.3% 13.1% 7.6% 14.0% 18.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 7.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 5.8% Consensus: 4.8% 18.0% 10.8% 7.0% 4.1% 8.4% 9.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 9.0% 5.4% 3.5% 2.0% 4.2% 4.6% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/30/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 29 28 27 27 29 28 28 28 30 33 37 41 43 48 51 18HR AGO 30 29 26 25 24 24 26 25 25 25 27 30 34 38 40 45 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 24 26 25 25 25 27 30 34 38 40 45 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 21 20 20 20 22 25 29 33 35 40 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT