* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 28 28 28 29 33 36 39 41 44 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 30 28 27 27 30 30 30 31 35 38 41 42 46 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 28 28 27 27 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 15 9 10 18 21 21 14 11 11 14 15 21 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 4 7 6 4 0 3 0 3 3 3 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 298 312 313 328 1 44 43 45 50 69 110 141 175 197 218 232 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 28.8 28.2 26.1 26.4 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 150 141 116 119 123 120 115 112 110 110 111 113 115 119 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 7 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 81 75 73 70 73 68 66 56 52 44 42 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 35 23 33 37 28 42 11 3 -23 -29 -32 -49 -64 -73 -71 200 MB DIV 19 33 78 69 44 27 -1 -1 3 -8 -10 -13 -8 -6 -29 -12 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 -1 0 3 -8 -9 -8 4 11 20 26 31 35 33 LAND (KM) 51 101 84 -29 -148 -283 -94 197 127 269 451 645 867 1125 1392 1677 1907 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.1 94.3 95.5 96.9 98.5 101.5 104.5 107.4 110.2 113.0 116.0 119.0 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 14 6 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 93.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 16.1% 10.2% 7.2% 4.5% 10.2% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 30.2% 16.2% 7.6% 5.4% 16.1% 19.0% 8.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 9.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 12.0% Consensus: 3.8% 18.4% 9.6% 5.1% 3.3% 9.2% 9.5% 6.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 9.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.6% 4.6% 4.7% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/30/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 30 28 27 27 30 30 30 31 35 38 41 42 46 50 18HR AGO 30 29 30 27 25 24 24 27 27 27 28 32 35 38 39 43 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 21 20 20 23 23 23 24 28 31 34 35 39 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 17 17 20 20 20 21 25 28 31 32 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT