* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/30/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 35 35 34 31 31 32 33 34 37 40 42 43 46 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 29 28 27 27 30 31 32 33 36 39 41 42 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 32 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 10 10 12 12 18 17 12 11 10 14 18 21 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 1 1 6 4 4 2 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 301 320 343 7 57 73 52 55 87 113 176 175 207 195 209 214 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.0 27.9 27.6 26.3 26.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 152 136 132 117 116 124 123 124 125 124 121 123 123 124 124 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 81 81 79 75 72 72 70 68 60 53 48 45 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 11 10 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 45 43 45 62 73 59 52 28 5 -17 -16 -11 -13 -11 -16 200 MB DIV 67 48 67 100 72 42 23 24 29 32 12 0 -29 0 -33 -37 -4 700-850 TADV -9 -2 -6 -3 -4 1 0 -2 -7 -9 -4 -1 10 11 15 15 21 LAND (KM) 30 47 9 -82 -182 -200 -84 65 277 289 413 549 741 910 1093 1281 1480 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.2 94.6 95.9 97.1 98.3 100.8 103.3 105.8 108.3 110.7 113.4 116.0 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 16 7 5 0 0 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.7 93.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 17.3% 11.0% 7.6% 4.8% 10.9% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 42.9% 24.8% 13.8% 9.3% 15.1% 17.8% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 15.4% Consensus: 3.3% 22.0% 12.3% 7.2% 4.8% 8.8% 9.9% 9.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 11.0% 6.1% 3.6% 2.4% 4.4% 4.9% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/30/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 29 28 27 27 30 31 32 33 36 39 41 42 45 47 18HR AGO 30 29 32 27 26 25 25 28 29 30 31 34 37 39 40 43 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 21 20 19 19 22 23 24 25 28 31 33 34 37 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 21 22 23 24 27 30 32 33 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT