* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 37 33 29 28 26 26 28 31 34 36 40 44 V (KT) LAND 30 35 37 40 41 31 28 27 29 27 26 29 32 35 37 41 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 35 36 36 29 27 27 30 29 28 28 27 28 28 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 16 13 12 8 13 17 23 21 17 13 9 13 14 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 4 5 4 4 0 1 -3 5 3 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 266 276 294 310 322 38 70 82 55 55 67 122 140 163 173 200 192 SST (C) 30.2 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.2 25.7 27.0 27.0 26.6 25.9 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 172 161 158 156 156 141 112 126 125 121 114 110 109 109 109 109 108 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 6 6 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 81 81 80 75 75 71 72 66 63 55 50 44 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 9 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 31 27 28 25 36 43 38 40 13 15 -7 -32 -41 -70 -74 -63 200 MB DIV 69 71 29 61 81 34 13 2 -13 -7 -11 0 -14 11 -15 -30 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 1 -8 -9 -9 3 8 20 23 31 29 LAND (KM) -14 69 142 142 31 -238 -257 -10 261 148 292 457 608 812 1048 1267 1376 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.1 92.3 93.7 95.1 96.5 99.6 102.5 105.4 108.1 110.8 113.5 116.3 119.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 51 25 22 21 20 3 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -6. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 3. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 91.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 23.3% 11.9% 8.2% 5.5% 11.8% 11.5% 16.8% Logistic: 11.2% 45.1% 28.7% 16.3% 9.9% 20.7% 29.9% 19.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 11.9% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 2.3% 1.1% 22.9% Consensus: 5.3% 26.8% 14.4% 8.4% 5.2% 11.6% 14.2% 19.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 15.4% 8.2% 4.7% 2.6% 5.8% 7.1% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/30/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/30/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 37 40 41 31 28 27 29 27 26 29 32 35 37 41 45 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 25 22 21 23 21 20 23 26 29 31 35 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 20 17 16 18 16 15 18 21 24 26 30 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT