* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/29/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 35 33 31 29 29 30 33 35 36 40 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 36 31 28 27 30 28 28 29 32 34 35 39 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 29 28 27 30 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 12 7 12 13 15 22 25 18 17 6 14 10 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 4 6 6 1 3 0 6 4 8 9 17 SHEAR DIR 286 259 264 290 291 345 73 63 58 59 59 101 148 140 178 174 218 SST (C) 30.6 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.0 26.3 25.8 27.0 27.0 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 160 156 158 138 118 113 125 125 118 111 109 110 110 109 110 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 9 8 7 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 79 79 81 83 81 80 77 74 72 71 68 59 53 45 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 28 20 26 34 51 60 35 35 16 1 -19 -32 -55 -70 -77 200 MB DIV 40 67 61 24 41 52 24 7 -18 26 14 -5 -10 -10 4 -34 -10 700-850 TADV 3 -9 -13 -5 -2 -6 0 -2 -1 -8 -14 2 0 18 20 35 36 LAND (KM) -83 36 110 176 106 -101 -280 -162 70 220 185 315 488 666 905 1143 1228 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.7 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 91.5 92.8 94.2 95.5 98.1 100.9 103.6 106.3 109.0 111.6 114.5 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 15 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 37 22 22 21 5 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -15. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 90.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/29/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.87 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 14.1% 8.8% 6.1% 3.7% 10.3% 10.8% 16.7% Logistic: 2.8% 17.2% 7.1% 4.5% 2.8% 15.2% 31.8% 34.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.1% 49.8% Consensus: 2.0% 11.1% 5.4% 3.6% 2.2% 8.7% 14.9% 33.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.5% 3.2% 2.3% 1.1% 4.3% 7.4% 16.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/29/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/29/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 35 36 31 28 27 30 28 28 29 32 34 35 39 44 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 27 24 23 26 24 24 25 28 30 31 35 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 23 20 19 22 20 20 21 24 26 27 31 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT