* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/29/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 38 42 43 40 37 35 33 33 35 36 37 41 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 31 33 35 38 30 28 27 28 26 26 28 30 31 34 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 32 32 33 28 27 27 31 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 18 20 15 12 7 11 14 23 21 21 14 12 16 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -4 -2 -5 0 3 6 4 0 3 -2 5 1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 288 287 262 272 280 296 35 69 73 66 66 75 114 117 146 142 141 SST (C) 29.1 29.9 30.3 29.4 29.2 29.4 28.2 25.7 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 169 173 160 157 160 141 112 125 123 117 111 110 110 110 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 7 10 7 7 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 77 80 79 81 83 80 76 73 68 71 67 65 56 50 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 30 11 8 15 27 44 37 42 16 0 -16 -44 -58 -72 -89 200 MB DIV 38 26 43 41 18 78 35 12 -14 -20 21 -5 -3 -19 -2 -15 0 700-850 TADV -6 0 -6 -9 -7 -7 -7 0 4 -4 -7 -10 4 11 21 25 24 LAND (KM) -9 -135 7 133 208 53 -216 -281 -5 240 112 251 444 629 888 1123 1201 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.0 20.9 21.1 21.5 22.2 23.1 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.5 90.8 92.2 93.7 96.6 99.5 102.4 105.3 108.0 110.8 113.7 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 6 45 24 25 23 6 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -11. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 12. 13. 10. 7. 5. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 88.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/29/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.87 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 16.3% 10.3% 7.3% 4.8% 11.4% 12.1% 19.2% Logistic: 7.6% 28.8% 16.1% 10.0% 6.4% 21.0% 37.1% 45.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 11.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.2% 2.9% 67.2% Consensus: 3.8% 18.7% 9.6% 6.0% 3.8% 11.5% 17.4% 44.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 9.8% 5.3% 3.0% 1.9% 5.7% 8.7% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/29/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/29/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 31 33 35 38 30 28 27 28 26 26 28 30 31 34 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 38 30 28 27 28 26 26 28 30 31 34 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 25 23 22 23 21 21 23 25 26 29 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT