* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 41 44 46 42 37 33 34 35 35 36 41 47 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 31 33 35 34 29 27 27 29 29 30 30 32 36 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 28 27 32 33 33 28 27 27 30 31 30 29 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 13 12 14 9 3 9 16 22 20 23 24 13 7 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 3 3 0 -2 6 2 5 SHEAR DIR 275 276 282 264 245 294 286 26 72 67 68 64 55 93 42 113 96 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.2 30.1 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.1 26.2 26.4 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.3 25.7 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 157 173 160 154 152 138 116 118 128 131 127 117 111 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 6 8 6 6 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 77 79 83 81 77 76 71 72 70 66 56 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 13 13 12 6 4 2 3 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 14 21 28 22 35 49 72 63 52 31 32 14 1 -3 -15 200 MB DIV 117 86 48 33 43 35 91 45 40 -4 5 14 8 -7 -33 6 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -10 -16 -5 -9 -9 -9 -7 -1 -1 -4 -6 -12 1 0 10 7 LAND (KM) 120 -8 -122 0 141 196 -9 -246 -203 -69 92 289 187 296 428 584 738 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.6 20.2 19.8 19.6 19.9 20.6 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.7 89.1 90.5 91.9 94.8 97.2 99.5 101.7 104.1 106.4 108.8 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 14 14 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 37 3 39 25 20 18 3 0 0 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -12. -17. -21. -21. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 14. 16. 12. 7. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 11. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 86.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.4% 11.1% 7.7% 4.8% 11.4% 13.0% 22.1% Logistic: 5.1% 23.6% 12.2% 9.4% 4.0% 16.9% 29.8% 49.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 9.3% 2.5% 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% 3.2% 72.2% Consensus: 3.1% 16.8% 8.6% 5.9% 3.1% 10.4% 15.3% 48.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/29/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/29/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 31 33 35 34 29 27 27 29 29 30 30 32 36 42 18HR AGO 30 29 28 31 33 35 34 29 27 27 29 29 30 30 32 36 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 33 32 27 25 25 27 27 28 28 30 34 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 23 18 16 16 18 18 19 19 21 25 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT