* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/28/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 48 49 43 40 39 39 40 42 46 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 29 28 32 36 40 30 28 27 29 29 29 29 31 35 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 29 28 31 33 34 28 27 27 31 32 31 31 30 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 16 11 7 10 1 5 15 20 21 26 20 21 14 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 7 2 2 0 0 -1 0 5 2 3 0 -4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 319 267 271 285 257 268 258 360 77 66 73 60 68 79 130 136 216 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 28.9 30.4 29.5 29.2 29.0 27.8 26.4 27.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 152 173 161 156 152 134 118 127 138 136 130 128 127 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 73 73 77 82 83 82 78 75 73 68 66 57 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 9 10 28 37 39 56 80 86 66 55 42 50 23 8 17 200 MB DIV 43 104 81 35 32 60 61 43 42 15 27 34 17 -10 -7 -21 1 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -15 -17 -8 -16 -5 -10 -2 0 0 -4 -6 -3 1 6 3 LAND (KM) 163 26 -76 -46 99 196 3 -193 -183 -45 69 195 356 362 448 596 745 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.1 19.6 19.0 18.5 18.5 18.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.4 88.7 90.2 91.6 94.2 96.6 98.6 100.5 102.6 104.7 106.8 108.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 41 12 33 28 21 18 7 0 3 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 13. 10. 9. 9. 10. 12. 16. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 86.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/28/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.6% 10.0% 7.0% 4.2% 10.8% 12.2% 21.4% Logistic: 2.9% 11.9% 5.6% 4.6% 1.7% 11.2% 20.7% 44.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 2.8% 72.1% Consensus: 2.3% 10.0% 5.4% 3.9% 2.0% 7.9% 11.9% 45.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 5.5% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 3.9% 5.9% 22.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/28/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/28/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 29 28 32 36 40 30 28 27 29 29 29 29 31 35 41 18HR AGO 30 29 25 24 28 32 36 26 24 23 25 25 25 25 27 31 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 29 33 37 27 25 24 26 26 26 26 28 32 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 32 22 20 19 21 21 21 21 23 27 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT