* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/28/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 30 34 38 42 42 40 36 36 37 38 38 42 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 26 33 37 33 29 27 30 30 31 32 32 36 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 25 29 29 26 27 27 27 31 30 30 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 12 11 17 15 13 8 2 10 15 21 22 20 20 14 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 4 5 1 2 1 -1 -1 1 5 4 4 0 6 0 SHEAR DIR 300 297 259 261 277 234 300 288 71 85 80 73 70 77 122 127 168 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.5 28.9 30.0 29.3 29.2 28.2 26.5 26.0 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 162 152 171 158 156 140 119 114 129 129 128 130 131 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 9 6 8 5 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 71 75 78 81 81 76 73 68 69 65 63 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 12 13 13 12 9 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 7 6 -2 21 26 36 55 72 54 61 46 42 14 -2 -8 200 MB DIV 28 34 83 73 45 58 59 72 24 24 -22 -7 11 -3 0 -33 0 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -5 -12 -19 -9 -9 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -4 -5 3 5 14 LAND (KM) 202 197 54 -71 -59 221 117 -114 -276 -153 9 183 352 341 473 618 791 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.6 20.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 19.3 19.4 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.8 87.0 88.4 89.9 92.9 95.8 98.3 100.6 102.7 105.0 107.1 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 74 44 23 17 31 20 5 0 0 4 4 3 4 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 0. -5. -11. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 13. 17. 17. 15. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 17. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 84.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/28/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.87 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.8% 7.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 3.5% 10.8% 35.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 26.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.6% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 1.4% 6.8% 20.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0% .7% 3.4% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/28/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/28/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 26 26 33 37 33 29 27 30 30 31 32 32 36 41 18HR AGO 25 24 26 24 24 31 35 31 27 25 28 28 29 30 30 34 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 19 26 30 26 22 20 23 23 24 25 25 29 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 22 26 22 18 16 19 19 20 21 21 25 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT