* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/28/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 40 44 47 48 46 43 41 45 47 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 29 36 39 35 30 28 27 31 33 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 28 26 30 30 27 27 27 27 30 33 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 20 20 9 8 14 12 7 4 10 15 17 9 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 -3 -2 1 4 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 292 296 300 247 290 229 242 206 44 70 58 63 54 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 30.4 29.4 29.4 28.8 27.7 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 158 156 172 159 158 148 132 118 120 127 124 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 8 7 9 6 8 6 7 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 72 73 72 75 80 84 84 80 78 74 73 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 13 14 13 12 8 5 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 17 -2 -3 6 16 34 40 42 47 58 73 53 37 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 59 24 27 71 45 55 36 67 27 41 17 36 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -11 -7 -6 -14 -7 -8 -9 -5 0 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 142 193 123 1 -44 151 147 -18 -206 -183 -80 15 134 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.4 19.0 18.8 19.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.2 84.2 85.4 86.6 87.7 90.3 92.7 94.9 96.7 98.6 100.5 102.5 104.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 13 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 33 47 43 29 38 24 20 14 6 0 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -9. -13. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 23. 21. 18. 16. 20. 22. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 83.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/28/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 16.1% 10.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 11.0% 5.5% 3.3% 1.1% 5.1% 9.5% 37.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 25.5% Consensus: 1.7% 9.8% 5.6% 3.6% 0.4% 2.0% 7.0% 20.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 6.4% 3.3% 1.8% .2% 1.0% 3.5% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/28/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/28/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 29 36 39 35 30 28 27 31 33 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 26 33 36 32 27 25 24 28 30 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 20 27 30 26 21 19 18 22 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT