* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/27/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 50 54 56 55 50 47 48 50 50 52 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 33 29 28 31 27 27 27 27 31 33 33 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 27 28 30 27 27 30 27 27 27 27 32 34 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 17 19 11 16 7 11 4 7 16 18 19 17 12 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 0 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 0 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 304 287 298 310 322 286 267 278 335 12 66 70 74 60 103 109 151 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.7 29.4 30.5 29.8 29.6 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.7 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 156 165 159 172 166 162 137 132 126 133 142 135 127 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 7 8 5 6 6 7 5 5 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 78 76 77 78 82 86 85 83 80 77 73 70 67 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 11 13 12 12 11 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 53 47 48 66 86 78 66 77 80 82 67 68 42 53 38 200 MB DIV 91 85 74 55 65 57 62 74 55 56 17 11 26 41 19 3 -24 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -9 -9 -7 -17 -6 -11 -6 -1 0 0 0 -5 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 19 2 22 88 -8 -140 -51 13 -75 -210 -140 -13 46 130 263 386 370 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.6 85.8 87.1 88.3 90.5 92.6 94.5 96.4 98.1 99.9 101.8 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 27 26 32 29 6 30 21 9 7 3 5 9 7 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 25. 29. 31. 30. 25. 22. 23. 25. 25. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 83.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 21.1% 11.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 12.4% 40.6% 25.4% 21.5% 11.3% 28.2% 39.4% 68.7% Bayesian: 2.1% 18.7% 6.2% 2.1% 1.2% 5.2% 9.3% 84.9% Consensus: 5.9% 26.8% 14.4% 10.5% 4.1% 11.1% 20.2% 51.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 14.4% 7.7% 5.2% 2.0% 5.5% 10.1% 25.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/27/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 33 29 28 31 27 27 27 27 31 33 33 35 38 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 30 26 25 28 24 24 24 24 28 30 30 32 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 25 21 20 23 19 19 19 19 23 25 25 27 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT