* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/27/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 37 42 47 50 52 53 56 58 58 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 35 35 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 33 35 36 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 19 20 8 6 5 3 7 19 19 22 20 17 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 2 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -2 3 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 309 314 273 280 289 234 266 230 9 53 67 75 72 74 88 110 126 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.9 29.7 30.0 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.7 27.4 28.6 29.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 158 169 165 170 153 146 136 132 128 145 162 145 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 8 6 7 5 7 5 6 3 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 78 78 77 79 81 84 84 84 80 79 74 72 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 59 61 50 50 70 97 93 72 78 85 77 71 74 47 39 20 200 MB DIV 76 74 90 86 57 85 59 85 66 63 66 85 47 59 33 20 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -8 -8 -5 -5 -5 -3 -6 0 2 0 -2 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 72 9 22 68 31 -177 -111 -50 -135 -155 -84 31 141 253 337 447 539 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 84.0 85.4 86.7 88.0 90.5 92.6 94.5 96.3 98.0 99.8 101.5 103.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 27 34 33 6 14 18 9 6 4 11 16 16 15 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 44. 45. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 31. 33. 33. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 82.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 17.9% 11.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 15.9% 30.7% 17.5% 18.0% 9.2% 32.3% 44.5% 66.9% Bayesian: 4.4% 18.2% 7.9% 3.5% 2.1% 3.9% 5.7% 82.2% Consensus: 7.9% 22.3% 12.2% 9.8% 3.8% 12.1% 20.6% 49.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/27/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 35 35 37 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 30 32 32 34 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 20 20 20 20 20 20 23 26 28 28 30 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT