* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 34 36 39 44 46 49 50 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 27 32 30 28 27 27 31 32 32 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 28 26 26 27 27 30 33 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 19 19 25 14 19 8 11 3 10 20 17 19 17 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 0 1 -3 -5 1 3 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 282 299 312 283 287 291 273 253 286 35 75 111 79 73 68 76 89 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 30.4 29.1 28.3 27.4 26.2 26.3 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 157 158 158 155 173 154 142 129 115 117 132 127 125 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 7 9 8 8 6 7 6 6 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 78 78 76 76 77 81 82 83 78 74 71 67 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 43 47 53 37 24 40 65 62 46 67 58 57 45 55 36 -3 200 MB DIV 82 65 67 85 89 54 50 50 74 59 56 36 -1 7 35 14 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -1 -3 -10 -19 -11 -16 -3 -4 2 -1 0 -5 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 354 197 73 26 66 13 -55 55 -32 -235 -182 -103 30 190 376 335 454 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.6 18.3 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.9 81.3 82.7 84.1 85.4 88.1 90.9 93.7 96.3 98.7 100.8 102.7 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 32 29 28 26 29 19 10 4 0 0 4 3 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 33. 36. 39. 42. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 19. 21. 24. 25. 25. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 79.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.1% 8.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.5% 5.3% 2.5% 1.3% 5.7% 13.7% 36.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 45.8% Consensus: 1.4% 10.2% 4.8% 2.8% 0.4% 1.9% 8.0% 27.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/27/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 27 32 30 28 27 27 31 32 32 34 36 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 25 30 28 26 25 25 29 30 30 32 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 22 27 25 23 22 22 26 27 27 29 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 15 20 18 16 15 15 19 20 20 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT