* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 27 27 29 32 37 42 47 52 55 57 59 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 34 37 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 17 14 15 10 2 4 6 10 18 19 19 13 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 5 4 2 0 5 -1 -4 -1 -2 -3 2 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 262 280 299 312 307 280 226 213 201 47 67 69 63 66 65 67 82 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.4 29.2 29.7 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 28.2 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 161 157 165 154 152 147 140 137 131 127 139 156 149 141 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 9 7 8 6 7 5 7 5 6 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 74 72 74 76 77 78 80 80 82 81 82 77 77 73 74 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 59 72 73 72 74 97 117 106 79 72 72 63 63 71 34 15 200 MB DIV 72 87 77 71 89 86 92 59 93 74 73 51 62 44 56 23 2 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -8 -10 -2 -5 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 398 168 -9 -49 3 -29 -206 -88 -84 -130 -102 -80 14 100 192 288 423 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 81.6 83.4 85.0 86.4 89.0 91.5 93.7 95.6 97.2 98.5 99.9 101.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 19 17 15 13 13 11 10 8 7 6 7 9 9 10 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 27 39 28 32 29 8 15 11 10 6 4 9 14 14 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 79.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 13.2% 8.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 3.6% 10.9% 39.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 33.3% Consensus: 1.0% 6.7% 3.5% 2.3% 0.2% 1.2% 7.3% 24.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/27/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 35 38 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 29 31 32 34 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 29 30 32 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 20 22 23 25 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT