* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 39 42 46 51 56 60 65 66 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 25 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 34 39 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 23 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 34 39 45 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 22 21 16 17 9 11 4 6 10 12 8 15 13 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 -5 -4 0 -3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 290 272 273 288 291 286 279 288 229 300 104 96 77 55 92 90 116 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.3 30.0 28.8 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.6 28.3 29.3 29.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 155 161 158 171 150 151 143 137 131 140 156 161 144 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 10 7 9 7 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 72 73 72 76 79 80 80 79 79 79 78 77 75 71 69 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 55 67 74 76 68 77 103 89 77 58 59 45 41 65 64 40 200 MB DIV 47 79 85 71 69 82 45 69 62 68 46 46 -4 -9 31 34 32 700-850 TADV -9 -1 0 0 0 -7 -6 -13 -1 -8 -1 0 1 -2 0 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 390 388 183 7 -42 20 -143 -158 -88 -164 -88 -4 108 192 260 315 384 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 79.6 81.5 83.2 84.6 87.4 90.1 92.7 95.0 97.1 99.1 100.9 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 25 21 18 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 77 32 27 39 31 35 20 5 3 9 5 9 16 18 16 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 27 CX,CY: -26/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 42. 46. 47. 49. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 41. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 77.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.90 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.8% 8.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 2.7% 8.9% 28.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 8.3% Consensus: 1.1% 6.6% 3.4% 2.1% 0.1% 1.0% 6.4% 12.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/26/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 25 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 34 39 40 43 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 24 29 26 26 26 26 26 26 33 38 39 42 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 20 25 22 22 22 22 22 22 29 34 35 38 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT