* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 32 32 29 30 33 36 39 41 45 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 32 28 29 26 27 27 30 32 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 22 23 26 24 26 26 30 33 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 22 26 28 36 26 29 23 24 15 12 15 4 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 3 0 4 4 7 0 5 8 2 8 SHEAR DIR 297 293 300 295 276 286 272 289 279 293 283 317 307 314 230 158 157 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 30.6 29.2 27.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.4 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 153 155 155 157 161 174 158 136 121 116 114 108 108 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 12 11 9 10 8 10 8 10 6 8 4 5 2 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 66 68 72 75 73 73 76 73 73 68 68 63 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 37 34 37 16 34 5 34 51 37 25 2 11 17 29 17 200 MB DIV 5 14 8 20 33 67 47 40 46 50 21 21 4 -15 -12 7 -7 700-850 TADV 6 3 -2 -7 -3 -5 -3 -13 -13 -20 -1 2 0 5 -1 2 -8 LAND (KM) 123 89 162 317 353 321 126 111 -88 100 -83 -336 -155 15 105 49 -12 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.8 72.9 74.8 76.6 80.2 83.5 87.0 90.5 94.1 97.6 100.8 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 20 19 18 18 16 18 17 18 16 15 13 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 36 76 77 32 29 31 13 19 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 44. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -12. -19. -22. -23. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 7. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 68.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 14.9% 9.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 2.8% 4.8% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% Consensus: 1.5% 9.2% 4.7% 2.8% 0.2% 1.0% 4.2% 6.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/26/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 32 28 29 26 27 27 30 32 36 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 32 31 27 28 25 26 26 29 31 35 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 28 27 23 24 21 22 22 25 27 31 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 20 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT