* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 36 35 34 32 33 36 42 48 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 36 35 34 31 32 29 27 27 30 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 26 25 22 18 23 26 25 26 27 27 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 19 29 27 38 32 27 14 24 6 12 5 5 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -2 0 -1 0 2 4 1 7 1 2 0 -2 1 5 SHEAR DIR 315 292 281 286 289 271 274 269 283 281 291 301 325 60 147 114 115 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.3 28.7 29.9 29.4 27.5 26.8 26.6 27.5 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 157 153 155 158 154 159 149 170 160 131 122 119 129 137 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 12 10 10 8 10 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 65 66 67 64 69 74 74 72 72 73 75 75 77 73 70 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 30 30 35 31 22 12 7 -5 47 58 66 42 55 37 51 48 200 MB DIV 5 -3 34 34 51 33 60 53 72 48 62 62 11 18 19 4 -3 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 -3 -9 2 -10 -15 -19 -31 -12 -8 0 -2 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 184 171 124 159 311 276 257 193 5 12 78 -141 -180 -57 0 100 228 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.0 19.2 18.8 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 68.1 70.2 72.2 74.1 78.0 81.5 84.7 88.1 91.4 94.6 97.5 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 21 20 20 19 17 16 16 16 15 13 10 9 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 40 48 80 85 30 46 24 42 20 6 2 1 4 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 31. 35. 39. 43. 46. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -12. -18. -21. -21. -20. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 8. 11. 17. 23. 24. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 65.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.87 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 15.4% 10.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 10.6% 5.9% 4.8% 2.4% 7.6% 7.4% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 3.5% Consensus: 2.4% 11.1% 6.1% 4.1% 0.8% 2.7% 5.3% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/25/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/25/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 35 36 35 34 31 32 29 27 27 30 33 34 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 34 33 32 29 30 27 25 25 28 31 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 29 28 27 24 25 22 20 20 23 26 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT