* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 10/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 33 30 25 18 23 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 33 30 25 18 23 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 29 28 28 27 26 23 18 15 23 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 21 16 14 18 17 24 41 41 59 58 55 49 54 42 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 3 2 6 9 -4 -1 -11 -6 -6 6 5 5 6 5 SHEAR DIR 277 274 282 276 287 296 275 284 278 302 330 335 348 338 317 296 281 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 24.9 23.1 21.5 21.1 22.4 23.4 23.3 20.3 18.5 22.3 22.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 125 124 120 112 101 91 88 93 98 96 82 78 93 94 100 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -52.0 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 4 3 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 55 56 60 74 59 41 34 39 46 55 58 62 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 10 8 7 7 14 15 15 17 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 19 30 73 33 -67 -56 -33 43 76 47 10 -16 -37 -17 -67 200 MB DIV 0 -39 -51 -29 -16 57 65 58 17 -8 -31 -29 -12 3 16 10 0 700-850 TADV 9 4 8 15 -8 -15 -38 52 -5 1 9 5 1 36 26 2 -10 LAND (KM) 1045 1203 1389 1449 1505 1369 1468 1904 1293 1010 623 174 -76 -330 -348 -212 -62 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.6 31.1 31.6 32.3 34.7 37.6 39.2 38.9 35.8 32.0 29.2 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.5 64.3 61.7 58.9 55.9 49.1 40.1 31.5 24.4 20.3 17.4 14.0 10.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 24 25 27 36 38 32 24 23 21 18 17 20 24 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 6 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -29. -34. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -7. -7. -8. -7. -19. -27. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -22. -17. -16. -18. -18. -32. -44. -48. -48. -46. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.3 66.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 10/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.30 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.0% 8.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.1% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 10/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 10/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 33 30 25 18 23 24 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 34 31 26 19 24 25 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 30 25 18 23 24 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT