* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 10/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 32 26 23 21 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 32 26 23 21 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 34 31 28 26 24 23 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 32 24 20 16 20 20 33 36 50 61 53 48 49 44 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 4 2 4 4 3 3 -4 -4 -1 0 2 3 6 2 SHEAR DIR 278 276 276 277 272 299 298 300 293 284 315 326 336 332 324 293 277 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.4 23.7 21.8 20.6 21.2 22.4 23.1 22.3 18.5 22.1 22.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 126 125 122 116 105 93 87 88 92 95 91 78 92 95 99 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -52.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 1 3 2 4 700-500 MB RH 57 53 54 56 55 56 69 61 44 29 30 36 44 52 61 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 14 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 12 28 26 59 -21 -61 -10 39 41 60 33 -1 -25 -19 -18 200 MB DIV 22 -4 -44 -59 -35 57 94 60 35 0 -12 -42 -13 -10 9 12 19 700-850 TADV 26 12 1 2 7 -26 27 43 41 -17 12 2 0 8 18 29 19 LAND (KM) 910 1032 1203 1365 1416 1409 1359 1768 1469 939 759 445 100 -244 -314 -139 104 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.5 32.1 34.0 37.0 39.0 39.8 38.7 35.1 31.7 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 66.5 64.1 61.4 58.4 51.8 43.0 34.0 26.5 20.3 17.1 14.5 11.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 25 27 34 40 33 27 23 21 19 17 19 24 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 10 8 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -21. -27. -32. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -25. -28. -33. -35. -35. -34. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.1 68.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 10/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.40 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.4% 5.7% 4.3% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 1.4% 1.0% .7% 0% 1.1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 10/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 10/09/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 35 32 26 23 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 35 32 26 23 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 31 25 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT