* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 10/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 40 38 33 26 24 25 28 34 36 35 38 43 50 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 40 38 33 26 24 25 28 34 36 35 38 43 41 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 33 28 24 22 20 19 17 17 18 19 21 21 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 45 41 35 33 24 25 33 53 52 43 24 25 30 31 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 6 1 5 6 7 2 6 1 5 10 18 17 20 N/A SHEAR DIR 281 279 283 277 273 289 289 300 282 247 235 260 278 284 297 312 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.4 24.0 20.5 16.3 12.5 12.1 11.4 10.4 10.1 11.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 131 128 126 122 115 106 89 79 72 69 68 69 70 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.6 -55.0 -58.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 63 61 60 62 64 54 33 46 56 65 66 68 68 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 19 17 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 20 15 16 27 50 34 20 -15 38 59 19 5 -9 -69 N/A 200 MB DIV 69 72 47 38 -3 -62 4 131 134 209 97 26 26 21 -76 -235 N/A 700-850 TADV 23 28 30 31 13 -3 -2 105 107 126 102 70 73 71 100 117 N/A LAND (KM) 607 780 872 985 1128 1342 1368 1174 1350 1610 1053 744 514 356 309 -54 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.0 29.7 30.3 30.9 32.3 34.3 37.4 41.5 47.1 53.2 56.8 59.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.0 71.4 69.4 67.3 65.0 59.9 53.8 46.2 37.7 31.3 25.9 21.1 15.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 19 20 21 25 30 39 37 38 28 20 20 22 28 31 N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 22 16 12 10 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 14. 19. 24. 25. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -14. -15. -10. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 8. 9. 11. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -16. -15. -12. -6. -4. -5. -2. 3. 10. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.3 73.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 10/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 10/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 10/09/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 40 38 33 26 24 25 28 34 36 35 38 43 41 DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 39 37 32 25 23 24 27 33 35 34 37 42 40 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 35 30 23 21 22 25 31 33 32 35 40 38 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT