* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 09/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 45 50 57 62 67 69 71 71 72 72 74 76 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 45 50 57 62 67 69 71 71 72 72 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 43 46 50 54 59 65 72 77 82 86 87 87 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 10 15 12 2 4 6 5 7 9 11 10 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 1 -1 0 0 3 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 348 320 293 288 305 304 336 353 349 65 6 47 65 88 73 89 112 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 128 129 130 130 134 135 135 133 133 134 133 135 133 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 72 69 68 65 65 59 59 60 62 63 63 63 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 49 49 48 54 53 70 56 45 28 23 13 1 0 7 22 200 MB DIV 38 37 69 65 86 89 61 62 30 14 0 30 -10 18 19 36 15 700-850 TADV -2 -10 -12 -3 0 -7 -4 -6 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1117 1314 1500 1696 1870 2150 1979 1845 1741 1718 1726 1765 1813 1882 1937 1992 2097 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.2 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.9 29.7 31.4 33.2 34.8 37.7 40.1 41.7 42.7 42.8 42.8 42.6 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 15 13 10 7 3 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 14 14 8 20 48 42 39 40 45 49 45 33 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 20. 27. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41. 42. 42. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 27.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 09/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 26.8% 14.4% 9.0% 5.8% 12.5% 14.0% 28.0% Logistic: 11.1% 36.2% 26.9% 9.6% 2.7% 12.8% 8.7% 17.8% Bayesian: 5.4% 5.5% 6.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4.3% 8.0% 13.1% Consensus: 7.0% 22.8% 15.8% 6.6% 3.1% 9.9% 10.2% 19.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.0% 12.9% 8.4% 3.8% 1.5% 4.9% 5.1% 9.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 09/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 40 42 45 50 57 62 67 69 71 71 72 72 74 76 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 40 45 52 57 62 64 66 66 67 67 69 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 39 46 51 56 58 60 60 61 61 63 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 30 37 42 47 49 51 51 52 52 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT