* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 09/11/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 39 44 49 55 59 62 65 67 68 68 71 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 39 44 49 55 59 62 65 67 68 68 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 40 42 46 52 58 65 71 75 80 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 9 8 15 16 7 3 5 7 9 11 13 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0 -1 -6 -7 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 356 343 320 275 278 288 314 336 29 3 92 96 75 76 75 64 84 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 128 125 128 130 131 135 134 135 135 135 136 137 137 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 72 71 69 67 62 62 56 58 57 57 57 59 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 21 34 33 44 44 64 79 66 36 29 12 9 -1 -10 -11 200 MB DIV 31 24 36 54 63 74 77 35 19 10 -14 4 2 28 24 16 -11 700-850 TADV -2 0 -5 -11 -5 -2 -5 -4 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 860 1039 1219 1407 1605 1943 2164 1973 1802 1697 1651 1620 1605 1602 1615 1663 1742 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.9 19.0 18.6 17.8 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.5 27.1 28.7 30.4 32.2 35.5 38.4 40.7 42.2 43.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 15 13 9 7 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 8 8 15 13 12 34 46 42 41 40 40 43 49 55 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 43. 46. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 25.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 09/11/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 15.6% 10.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 14.1% 9.5% 2.1% 0.4% 2.3% 2.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.7% 7.5% 3.2% 0.3% 1.2% 5.1% 2.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 6.8% 4.2% 2.1% .1% 1.1% 2.5% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 09/11/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 39 44 49 55 59 62 65 67 68 68 71 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 40 45 51 55 58 61 63 64 64 67 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 40 46 50 53 56 58 59 59 62 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 32 38 42 45 48 50 51 51 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT