* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 09/11/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 47 54 59 62 65 68 70 71 73 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 47 54 59 62 65 68 70 71 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 33 36 39 44 51 59 67 75 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 8 7 10 12 11 4 4 4 2 7 3 3 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -2 -2 -1 2 3 0 -1 0 0 -4 -5 -3 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 38 358 330 309 278 278 284 318 275 346 92 40 43 45 22 9 58 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 129 124 129 129 130 133 132 131 131 132 133 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 74 72 71 70 65 64 58 59 58 59 62 62 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 18 19 17 16 14 13 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 43 31 23 25 31 43 49 53 71 71 61 48 30 28 12 2 12 200 MB DIV 46 37 29 28 45 77 80 65 34 27 -1 7 17 -12 3 11 23 700-850 TADV -7 -6 0 -4 -11 -1 -5 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 684 847 1025 1205 1384 1741 2030 2154 1996 1876 1844 1857 1898 1947 2016 2088 2153 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.6 19.3 19.3 18.7 18.1 17.8 17.8 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.9 25.4 27.0 28.6 30.2 33.5 36.4 38.9 40.5 41.5 41.6 41.4 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 16 13 10 7 3 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 15 13 8 8 23 11 15 28 49 46 46 48 42 27 26 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 27. 34. 39. 42. 45. 48. 50. 51. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 23.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 09/11/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 15.9% 9.2% 2.0% 0.7% 2.5% 3.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 1.5% 6.1% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 3.5% 2.2% .3% .1% .5% .6% .9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 09/11/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 47 54 59 62 65 68 70 71 73 75 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 30 36 45 52 57 60 63 66 68 69 71 73 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 31 40 47 52 55 58 61 63 64 66 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT