* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 09/10/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 27 32 39 46 53 59 61 67 72 74 74 76 76 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 27 32 39 46 53 59 61 67 72 74 74 76 76 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 36 41 47 53 61 69 76 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 7 15 7 7 8 4 7 6 8 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 1 -2 2 -3 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 360 1 359 332 319 290 283 323 352 341 330 4 15 53 21 47 26 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 139 138 132 128 130 131 135 135 135 134 134 133 134 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 73 72 73 71 69 64 61 54 59 57 59 60 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 14 12 13 15 16 17 17 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 42 36 36 47 51 53 66 74 73 59 47 34 33 6 -10 200 MB DIV 22 64 54 49 46 76 78 75 47 30 32 21 34 13 29 26 21 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -8 -2 -5 -6 0 -6 -5 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 541 707 877 1052 1231 1586 1934 2172 1992 1820 1714 1687 1693 1730 1796 1915 2033 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.6 18.8 19.1 18.9 18.1 17.5 17.1 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.3 28.9 32.1 35.4 38.4 40.8 42.3 43.1 43.0 42.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 17 15 13 9 7 3 2 2 2 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 15 13 11 14 14 13 31 50 45 39 36 36 49 43 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 34. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 19. 26. 33. 39. 41. 47. 52. 54. 54. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 22.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 09/10/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 20.4% 13.1% 6.4% 2.6% 8.6% 7.4% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% Consensus: 1.8% 8.0% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 09/10/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 27 32 39 46 53 59 61 67 72 74 74 76 76 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 25 30 37 44 51 57 59 65 70 72 72 74 74 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 25 32 39 46 52 54 60 65 67 67 69 69 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT