* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 06/23/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 28 29 31 33 34 35 36 36 38 38 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 33 33 34 35 37 37 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 30 29 27 25 23 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 6 9 12 5 8 11 16 18 20 23 19 20 25 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 3 3 8 8 7 6 9 4 5 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 34 43 22 359 10 358 35 64 67 80 83 115 139 141 153 161 168 SST (C) 29.6 28.7 28.1 28.1 28.1 25.8 25.5 25.7 26.4 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.2 25.6 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 146 137 137 138 111 108 110 118 126 127 125 123 115 110 109 109 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 10 12 11 9 11 6 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 70 71 65 63 61 60 56 58 52 51 44 42 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 8 7 22 35 24 47 27 27 23 44 23 33 13 22 2 10 200 MB DIV 5 -4 10 20 -2 10 42 12 -20 -14 -7 10 -16 -11 -6 5 -8 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 -2 -3 -1 2 5 6 8 3 3 2 2 11 12 15 LAND (KM) 67 -15 -107 -199 -290 -333 -154 8 186 159 256 375 443 510 591 686 813 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.9 22.2 21.5 21.3 21.4 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.9 98.8 99.7 100.6 102.6 104.4 106.2 108.0 110.0 111.8 113.3 114.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 21 13 14 13 0 0 0 1 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.1 97.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 06/23/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.9% 7.7% 5.8% 3.5% 8.9% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 2.1% 5.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 1.4% 6.4% 3.7% 2.3% 1.3% 3.7% 4.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 3.2% 1.8% 1.1% .6% 1.8% 2.3% .2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 06/23/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 06/23/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 33 33 34 35 37 37 39 41 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 33 34 36 36 37 38 40 40 42 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 33 33 34 35 37 37 39 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 23 24 26 26 27 28 30 30 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT