* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 06/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 33 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 31 30 30 30 32 33 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 29 27 25 22 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 8 11 11 7 12 14 17 21 21 25 18 23 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 6 1 -1 2 9 9 8 8 9 9 5 4 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 88 22 37 14 4 28 5 56 74 88 92 114 131 149 144 150 149 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.4 28.1 27.7 25.8 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 156 142 138 132 112 109 113 119 119 119 117 113 109 107 108 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 10 12 11 11 8 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 72 70 69 66 63 61 57 58 57 53 50 46 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 13 13 27 41 57 29 45 9 32 26 26 16 18 14 29 200 MB DIV 42 9 -4 21 29 1 32 8 -3 -28 -1 -4 -5 0 -25 23 -14 700-850 TADV 1 -2 0 3 -3 0 0 0 7 5 3 1 2 1 7 9 13 LAND (KM) 180 128 47 -35 -137 -341 -277 -91 90 158 167 293 381 445 537 607 709 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.5 21.9 21.6 21.6 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 97.3 98.1 99.1 101.1 103.1 105.0 106.9 108.8 110.8 112.5 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 46 38 18 13 14 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.7 96.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 06/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 14.7% 9.5% 7.1% 4.6% 10.0% 9.8% 15.6% Logistic: 2.2% 7.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 1.4% 7.7% 4.5% 2.8% 1.7% 4.2% 4.6% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 3.8% 2.2% 1.4% .8% 2.1% 2.3% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 06/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 06/23/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 31 30 30 30 32 33 37 18HR AGO 30 29 28 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 31 30 30 30 32 33 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 24 24 25 25 28 28 29 28 28 28 30 31 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 22 22 25 25 26 25 25 25 27 28 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT