* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 06/23/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 36 33 33 33 32 32 32 31 31 34 36 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 28 27 27 30 33 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 33 29 27 27 27 31 31 30 29 27 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 10 9 7 13 3 9 12 17 20 20 23 19 19 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 3 7 3 2 3 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 98 56 23 44 15 17 351 46 86 76 90 88 112 135 140 151 150 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.2 28.1 25.8 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 151 139 138 111 109 109 111 116 117 114 111 108 107 108 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 10 12 9 12 6 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 75 74 75 73 66 64 62 61 58 57 52 51 44 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 19 13 17 39 27 46 16 25 25 25 16 15 2 18 18 200 MB DIV 38 23 -13 -8 10 -1 11 29 18 -5 -19 -6 8 15 -5 -21 9 700-850 TADV 5 3 -1 0 2 -3 -1 2 3 5 9 2 1 1 0 9 6 LAND (KM) 191 180 97 16 -66 -269 -365 -175 -7 150 94 199 305 353 443 488 569 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.4 23.1 22.7 22.1 22.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.0 96.8 97.6 98.4 100.4 102.3 104.3 106.2 107.9 109.9 111.7 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 44 28 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 95.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 06/23/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 31.5% 19.6% 10.4% 6.8% 12.9% 12.8% 19.2% Logistic: 5.2% 15.2% 9.4% 3.5% 1.3% 6.4% 4.9% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.7% 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 33.3% Consensus: 4.0% 18.5% 10.7% 4.8% 2.8% 6.7% 6.0% 18.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 9.2% 5.3% 2.4% 1.4% 3.3% 3.0% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 06/23/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 06/23/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 28 27 27 30 33 37 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 29 26 25 25 25 26 27 26 25 25 28 31 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 25 22 21 21 21 22 23 22 21 21 24 27 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 19 16 15 15 15 16 17 16 15 15 18 21 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT