* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 06/22/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 31 30 31 33 35 37 38 38 38 38 41 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 34 33 33 34 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 32 34 35 34 34 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 7 8 6 8 6 8 11 14 18 17 24 22 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 0 -1 0 0 5 6 6 3 10 4 4 6 1 SHEAR DIR 193 137 113 84 58 69 40 73 71 80 66 89 90 113 132 121 128 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 150 137 135 134 111 110 113 117 120 119 119 120 119 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 7 10 7 9 5 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 83 80 78 81 77 76 70 67 62 63 60 66 60 59 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 11 10 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 41 19 26 30 43 54 40 43 33 19 16 29 16 36 13 18 200 MB DIV 27 20 8 4 -26 15 -12 15 30 12 -8 -2 -11 4 -9 6 11 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 3 4 5 5 3 1 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 138 66 18 -67 -148 -302 -338 -196 -48 103 229 266 249 256 305 368 423 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.4 21.9 21.3 20.7 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.7 97.6 98.5 99.3 100.8 102.3 103.8 105.2 106.6 107.7 109.1 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 22 13 13 13 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 11. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.0 95.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 06/22/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 15.9% 10.5% 7.7% 4.6% 11.1% 12.1% 21.2% Logistic: 4.3% 19.4% 10.7% 3.2% 1.5% 10.4% 18.2% 15.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 81.4% Consensus: 2.5% 13.5% 7.4% 3.7% 2.1% 7.6% 10.2% 39.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 06/22/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 06/22/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 34 33 33 34 37 41 18HR AGO 30 29 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 29 31 32 31 31 32 35 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 26 28 29 28 28 29 32 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 23 25 26 25 25 26 29 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT