* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 06/22/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 26 26 26 26 30 32 34 36 37 37 36 39 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 30 33 35 35 36 35 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 30 33 35 35 35 34 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 10 11 7 9 9 8 7 9 13 18 17 20 25 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 -1 -4 1 -3 0 3 4 5 2 7 9 0 6 1 SHEAR DIR 232 196 148 118 95 92 67 60 77 70 78 77 93 109 116 112 103 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.5 28.1 28.0 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 157 143 137 135 109 112 114 121 121 119 117 118 121 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 9 8 8 5 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 85 83 80 78 80 77 72 69 65 65 63 64 63 62 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 11 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 84 50 38 38 35 52 42 57 30 34 12 23 17 39 17 19 200 MB DIV 54 30 24 25 -2 -5 4 10 31 2 7 -16 -11 -4 5 -12 23 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 -1 0 -3 0 2 1 3 2 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 136 62 0 -70 -138 -274 -359 -218 -81 32 103 189 315 296 253 247 315 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 21.8 21.3 20.8 20.2 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.4 97.4 98.3 99.1 100.5 101.8 103.2 104.5 105.6 106.6 107.5 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 15 13 13 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.2 95.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 06/22/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.92 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.3% 9.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.2% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 5.3% 11.2% 12.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 27.8% Consensus: 1.4% 8.5% 4.3% 2.7% 0.2% 2.0% 7.2% 13.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 4.2% 2.1% 1.3% .1% 1.0% 3.6% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 06/22/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 06/22/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 30 33 35 35 36 35 37 41 18HR AGO 25 24 22 23 24 25 26 26 26 29 32 34 34 35 34 36 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 28 31 33 33 34 33 35 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 18 18 21 24 26 26 27 26 28 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT