* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932024 06/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 32 34 36 37 38 38 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 31 32 33 33 33 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 27 27 27 31 33 35 35 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 19 9 7 6 12 10 9 7 8 9 14 17 24 27 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 -3 2 0 5 5 6 7 6 1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 233 233 202 146 109 63 72 57 62 72 84 73 100 110 113 118 101 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.1 28.1 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 164 164 162 137 137 111 112 114 119 121 121 121 121 121 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 7 8 7 10 7 9 5 6 3 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 88 87 85 82 82 78 75 67 63 60 62 63 64 60 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 96 88 56 34 41 42 47 44 49 35 25 19 18 15 28 15 200 MB DIV 70 42 35 25 36 18 -3 3 4 32 22 -32 -15 -3 -2 -5 -7 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 4 3 -2 0 0 -2 2 3 2 4 3 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 118 156 140 106 33 -91 -241 -355 -193 -62 48 160 264 252 237 232 296 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.3 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.4 95.3 96.2 97.0 98.7 100.2 101.9 103.5 104.9 106.0 107.0 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 26 26 27 13 13 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. -1. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 93.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932024 INVEST 06/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.93 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 17.5% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 17.5% 8.7% 3.8% 1.3% 10.3% 16.5% 31.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 9.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 2.3% 3.4% 46.1% Consensus: 2.6% 14.8% 7.3% 4.1% 0.5% 4.2% 10.6% 25.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932024 INVEST 06/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932024 INVEST 06/22/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 31 32 33 33 33 35 38 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 23 23 24 24 24 28 29 30 30 30 32 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 19 19 20 20 20 24 25 26 26 26 28 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT