* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 27 27 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 22 23 27 25 22 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 22 24 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 35 38 36 27 15 18 17 22 12 18 8 13 17 37 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 3 -1 -1 6 2 4 -1 1 -5 -2 -1 0 -7 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 20 17 21 33 42 23 345 291 241 264 256 307 340 339 324 14 28 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.1 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 24.8 25.2 25.3 24.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 131 130 134 138 113 110 106 106 107 104 106 105 99 95 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -52.9 -53.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -55.0 -55.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 6 6 9 7 9 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 44 47 47 47 53 58 59 60 54 50 51 49 55 53 53 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -106 -97 -101 -121 -87 -37 -25 -32 -10 -45 -56 -69 -15 -12 -23 -60 -116 200 MB DIV -30 -16 -14 -8 -12 9 21 2 6 -15 -8 8 39 6 -32 -74 -54 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 5 11 -1 13 10 4 5 5 8 2 7 0 4 LAND (KM) -15 -15 -9 5 35 147 245 384 527 667 712 738 811 923 887 839 741 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.0 31.1 31.0 30.8 30.4 30.8 31.7 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.3 81.3 81.2 80.9 79.8 78.1 75.8 73.4 71.6 70.5 69.3 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 4 5 10 10 10 5 6 8 11 9 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 19 13 13 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.7 81.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/22/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/22/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 27 27 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 24 24 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT