* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/22/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 20 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 27 24 21 20 20 20 20 22 23 26 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 33 38 30 21 19 18 24 8 12 9 11 14 9 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 8 4 0 6 9 2 4 1 1 0 3 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 12 24 21 20 34 37 20 324 294 255 299 256 8 313 344 328 21 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.5 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 139 140 141 134 134 137 133 130 131 126 130 111 108 103 102 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 6 6 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 44 44 48 49 49 59 62 63 60 58 58 59 66 68 69 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -123 -114 -100 -98 -111 -66 -34 -35 -41 -54 -63 -26 -22 -8 -36 -25 -25 200 MB DIV -6 -24 -18 -3 0 -11 2 -1 -4 4 14 4 -12 44 9 5 -47 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 -1 10 -5 9 1 -4 -1 2 -7 12 0 10 4 LAND (KM) -14 -34 -30 -17 -26 35 70 154 160 182 180 263 383 479 469 535 540 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.6 31.4 31.1 31.0 30.5 30.1 29.7 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.6 81.7 81.7 81.8 81.1 80.6 79.5 79.1 78.8 78.8 78.0 76.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 3 2 2 4 4 5 2 3 2 4 9 9 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 25 22 14 12 25 24 20 21 13 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -7. -7. -5. -6. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.4 81.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/22/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.52 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/22/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/22/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 28 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 26 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT