* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/21/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 17 16 15 17 17 19 19 20 21 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 22 23 24 41 29 26 26 23 22 18 18 17 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 9 6 8 -2 3 7 -1 8 1 10 -2 6 1 7 SHEAR DIR 352 3 329 340 9 20 30 33 9 335 323 311 343 341 10 355 359 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 28.2 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 133 138 148 155 161 161 159 156 151 147 141 138 139 139 125 109 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 7 9 6 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 41 40 43 44 46 49 53 60 60 62 57 58 56 57 61 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -81 -92 -103 -110 -107 -113 -75 -63 -56 -74 -65 -85 -51 -24 9 -35 200 MB DIV 6 -25 -28 -40 -31 -15 -22 -14 -8 0 -8 -4 -17 13 7 54 -11 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 5 2 0 0 4 -3 2 -2 0 -8 2 -10 9 -6 LAND (KM) 188 96 22 -36 -83 -112 -60 -55 -39 -82 -90 -64 -42 48 194 329 324 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.5 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.5 81.3 81.9 82.4 82.7 82.9 82.6 82.4 81.7 81.6 81.3 81.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 5 3 3 1 3 2 4 1 2 3 6 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 9 20 20 4 5 21 17 16 17 21 25 23 23 30 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -13. -13. -11. -11. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.3 79.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/21/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.39 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.5% 5.2% 3.8% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.1% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 1.5% 1.1% .7% 0% .9% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/21/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/21/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 33 18HR AGO 30 29 28 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 29 30 31 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 28 29 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 24 25 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT