* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/20/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 32 31 28 26 23 22 23 24 24 24 26 29 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 29 27 27 27 27 26 27 27 29 30 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 26 26 27 30 30 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 15 14 31 22 37 37 38 25 24 17 23 12 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 1 3 7 3 2 0 0 5 0 1 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 180 258 319 345 345 333 7 10 31 13 352 334 331 343 3 358 358 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.3 28.0 29.1 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.4 28.3 27.5 26.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 130 141 136 152 160 162 160 158 161 158 141 140 132 117 109 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 9 7 10 7 9 7 10 7 10 8 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 48 45 45 45 45 50 52 53 56 57 63 62 65 65 71 75 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -54 -68 -66 -74 -98 -100 -122 -95 -71 -36 -35 -35 -46 -25 -27 8 200 MB DIV -29 -33 -2 6 -13 -14 -7 -23 -24 -11 0 0 8 5 17 32 63 700-850 TADV 6 8 9 3 5 5 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 22 16 LAND (KM) 364 327 226 154 87 -44 -102 -46 -39 -7 -16 -45 -64 70 324 621 670 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.0 77.2 78.4 79.4 80.3 81.8 82.5 83.0 83.0 82.8 82.5 82.0 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 7 6 2 2 2 2 4 3 6 8 14 19 24 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 15 29 17 25 5 30 31 33 25 16 21 22 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -0. -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.9 76.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/20/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.49 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.5% 7.8% 5.7% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0% 1.4% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/20/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/20/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 32 29 27 27 27 27 26 27 27 29 30 32 34 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 28 26 26 26 26 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 24 22 22 22 22 21 22 22 24 25 27 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 15 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT