* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/20/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 36 36 33 32 29 28 29 28 30 30 34 37 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 34 36 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 31 32 35 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 36 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 6 8 12 13 30 19 33 33 36 23 22 10 12 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 0 -5 -2 0 1 5 4 0 -6 -4 0 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 205 152 169 226 308 333 330 351 4 14 359 320 305 247 263 214 280 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 28.4 28.7 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.1 28.2 27.6 27.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 129 131 129 141 145 154 162 162 155 146 134 138 131 127 110 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 6 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 7 10 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 49 48 51 52 55 53 56 57 61 61 64 66 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -15 -23 -52 -65 -69 -97 -101 -113 -92 -65 -29 -19 -14 -13 -7 -11 200 MB DIV 6 7 -6 -25 -10 -1 -17 -12 2 -25 15 10 21 15 8 17 22 700-850 TADV 12 13 12 12 10 7 2 4 -2 3 2 0 3 1 1 6 2 LAND (KM) 467 377 346 330 243 114 -2 -56 -89 -92 -57 -24 -2 67 203 445 502 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.1 27.7 28.3 28.9 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.5 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.6 74.9 76.0 77.1 78.2 80.0 81.4 82.1 82.4 82.4 81.9 81.4 80.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 7 6 1 2 2 3 5 3 6 8 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 18 12 14 25 26 9 5 5 22 27 20 24 17 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -0. 0. 4. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.6 73.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/20/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.49 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.9% 8.1% 6.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.8% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0% 1.7% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/20/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/20/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 34 36 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 31 32 35 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 35 31 28 26 26 26 26 26 30 31 34 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 26 23 21 21 21 21 21 25 26 29 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT