* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/20/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 39 37 32 31 27 25 24 24 26 28 32 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 39 37 30 28 27 27 27 30 31 33 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 35 29 28 27 27 27 29 29 31 35 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 8 3 5 6 19 23 28 27 38 38 32 18 5 16 4 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 4 0 -2 0 0 5 4 0 -3 -1 0 -2 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 189 201 151 152 249 338 325 349 354 18 3 350 325 312 186 194 249 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.4 28.3 28.0 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 128 130 130 141 135 148 155 159 156 149 135 138 138 127 112 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -53.7 -53.1 -52.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 8 7 9 7 9 8 8 7 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 50 49 50 52 54 55 52 53 57 59 64 64 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -14 -10 -31 -52 -61 -80 -113 -110 -117 -81 -33 -2 -12 -17 -5 14 200 MB DIV 8 0 4 -28 -21 4 -18 -31 -20 -15 -12 -5 28 12 14 14 40 700-850 TADV 8 15 17 12 11 8 1 4 -1 0 7 0 6 0 10 1 8 LAND (KM) 569 476 411 402 340 185 75 -26 -64 -102 -65 -24 64 109 234 329 364 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.8 27.6 28.3 28.9 30.0 30.6 30.9 30.9 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.6 74.9 76.0 77.2 79.3 80.7 81.8 82.2 82.6 82.2 81.7 80.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 9 6 3 3 0 2 3 4 4 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 10 19 12 33 13 25 6 4 6 28 16 23 38 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 9. 7. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.4 72.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/20/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.53 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 13.4% 9.3% 7.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.4% 3.2% 1.4% 0.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.6% 4.3% 2.8% 0.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/20/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/20/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 36 39 37 30 28 27 27 27 30 31 33 37 41 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 36 34 27 25 24 24 24 27 28 30 34 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 31 29 22 20 19 19 19 22 23 25 29 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT