* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922024 06/19/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 36 35 31 29 29 28 29 31 34 38 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 30 32 35 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 35 34 28 27 27 27 27 29 30 32 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 6 5 5 16 17 30 22 35 34 38 21 16 12 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 3 0 -1 2 3 4 4 0 -3 -4 2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 185 189 198 96 172 321 335 338 3 9 7 350 309 294 213 246 145 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 28.0 28.1 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.1 29.9 28.9 28.2 28.2 27.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 127 128 128 137 136 146 155 164 167 164 148 137 138 133 121 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -53.3 -52.7 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.5 -52.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 6 5 8 7 10 7 10 7 9 7 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 49 48 46 49 51 54 53 56 59 63 62 66 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 -10 -15 -28 -65 -67 -97 -107 -109 -95 -74 -33 -42 -25 -20 -7 200 MB DIV -6 3 1 -4 -34 -12 -6 -18 -33 -23 -33 2 2 26 -8 15 -1 700-850 TADV 12 11 12 14 12 9 7 0 4 -3 4 2 0 5 1 0 6 LAND (KM) 600 603 505 457 448 256 121 -7 -74 -111 -104 -95 -17 78 185 292 369 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.8 27.4 28.2 28.8 29.8 30.6 30.8 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.2 73.6 74.9 76.0 78.4 80.2 81.6 82.3 82.7 82.8 82.4 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 13 12 11 6 5 2 2 2 3 6 5 6 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 10 9 17 30 17 29 5 5 5 5 29 20 31 25 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 6. 5. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.4 71.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST 06/19/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.64 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.2% 7.8% 5.9% 3.4% 9.3% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 3.6% 3.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST 06/19/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST 06/19/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 30 32 35 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 36 37 30 26 24 24 24 24 27 29 32 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 32 25 21 19 19 19 19 22 24 27 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT