* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 09/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 58 71 82 91 99 108 115 118 118 119 118 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 58 71 82 91 99 108 115 118 118 119 118 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 53 65 77 89 101 107 108 108 107 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 9 8 7 6 6 3 5 8 6 4 5 10 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 5 1 0 1 0 5 2 4 2 5 4 1 5 6 SHEAR DIR 56 53 59 60 46 71 90 98 29 30 60 42 48 270 277 245 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 152 151 152 154 151 147 144 143 147 144 144 148 150 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 72 73 75 77 76 72 70 70 70 72 73 76 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 17 19 20 22 26 29 31 34 38 42 44 48 52 55 850 MB ENV VOR 99 87 89 98 95 92 93 109 96 97 118 121 129 119 122 125 136 200 MB DIV 48 26 37 66 58 57 77 116 116 86 114 109 92 102 114 121 85 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 -2 -6 -4 -1 0 -1 1 1 8 31 53 LAND (KM) 1476 1573 1638 1693 1736 1843 1929 1945 1903 1878 1877 1841 1829 1842 1902 1939 2057 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.9 17.1 18.2 18.8 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.1 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.6 35.8 37.1 38.6 40.2 41.6 42.9 43.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 8 6 4 8 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 23 24 21 23 25 25 25 25 21 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 17. 19. 24. 28. 32. 33. 37. 39. 40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 33. 46. 57. 66. 74. 83. 90. 93. 93. 94. 93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 31.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 09/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.1% 8.9% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 2.9% 7.4% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.3% 45.7% Consensus: 1.4% 9.4% 4.4% 2.3% 0.2% 1.2% 7.0% 23.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 09/29/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 39 48 58 71 82 91 99 108 115 118 118 119 118 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 45 55 68 79 88 96 105 112 115 115 116 115 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 39 49 62 73 82 90 99 106 109 109 110 109 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 39 52 63 72 80 89 96 99 99 100 99 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT