* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 09/28/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 53 65 74 84 90 100 108 117 115 119 116 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 53 65 74 84 90 100 108 117 115 119 116 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 48 58 70 81 90 100 107 110 108 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 11 11 7 11 9 9 8 5 8 7 4 4 6 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 6 7 3 2 0 2 2 -1 2 6 7 8 4 -7 SHEAR DIR 27 32 37 42 48 55 52 58 63 87 47 95 29 356 328 306 286 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 149 152 155 155 153 149 143 142 146 146 144 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.6 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 67 68 71 71 78 74 75 72 73 72 72 74 79 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 18 19 22 24 26 29 29 34 38 44 45 50 50 850 MB ENV VOR 96 90 81 86 91 79 90 91 97 101 97 109 119 136 149 143 127 200 MB DIV 38 26 27 46 50 42 61 93 122 114 86 105 89 68 91 126 134 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 0 0 -1 0 12 26 38 LAND (KM) 1340 1448 1545 1630 1717 1880 1914 1862 1809 1825 1894 1932 1870 1705 1608 1701 1951 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.2 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.6 17.2 18.6 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.0 31.9 32.7 33.5 35.0 36.4 37.6 38.6 39.3 40.1 41.3 43.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 8 2 10 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 19 19 20 22 24 26 25 21 22 25 27 28 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 45. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 15. 15. 21. 25. 31. 31. 35. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 28. 40. 49. 59. 65. 75. 83. 92. 90. 94. 91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 30.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 09/28/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.5% 7.8% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.4% 5.3% 2.1% 1.0% 5.0% 9.1% 26.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 4.6% 35.7% Consensus: 1.9% 9.1% 4.8% 2.5% 0.4% 2.0% 7.8% 20.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 09/28/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 42 53 65 74 84 90 100 108 117 115 119 116 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 40 51 63 72 82 88 98 106 115 113 117 114 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 46 58 67 77 83 93 101 110 108 112 109 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 37 49 58 68 74 84 92 101 99 103 100 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT