* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 09/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 26 24 24 25 26 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 26 24 24 25 24 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 18 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 26 34 33 31 27 22 21 22 25 39 37 44 45 49 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -1 3 1 0 -2 0 -1 4 7 7 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 254 255 233 238 248 229 232 226 224 204 219 225 231 237 251 266 298 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.8 31.0 30.7 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.9 31.3 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 169 168 168 169 169 162 166 169 169 169 170 167 168 166 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -51.0 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -49.5 -49.3 -49.3 -49.5 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 5 2 5 1 6 2 8 5 9 6 7 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 65 65 62 60 59 59 61 63 60 55 54 54 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 54 44 35 34 40 22 25 20 23 21 24 20 39 43 27 35 200 MB DIV 34 59 34 14 8 51 38 65 51 60 78 52 50 21 9 9 35 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -2 -9 5 3 6 1 3 -1 0 -4 -4 3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 146 167 205 223 215 189 135 58 -70 -193 -293 -304 -261 -184 -139 -85 -24 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.7 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.2 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.3 96.0 96.9 98.2 99.4 100.3 100.5 100.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 61 67 77 92 97 78 65 50 36 9 7 6 6 7 6 5 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 10. 14. 16. 18. 21. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -29. -35. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -3. -6. -7. -11. -16. -22. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.5 95.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 09/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.51 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.9% 7.7% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.6% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 2.8% 1.9% .9% 0% 0% 1.0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 09/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 09/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 25 26 24 24 25 24 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 23 24 22 22 23 22 24 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 21 19 19 20 19 21 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT