* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 09/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 24 23 19 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 24 25 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 25 24 22 20 18 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 21 24 28 28 34 20 17 18 20 25 34 37 42 44 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 3 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 6 3 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 252 259 259 242 240 246 241 233 233 210 211 212 229 236 250 262 278 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.1 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.5 30.7 31.4 30.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 169 169 168 169 169 158 161 169 168 170 170 170 162 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 5 6 4 4 2 3 2 5 4 8 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 69 66 65 64 63 61 63 64 64 61 57 52 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 12 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 12 10 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 35 55 51 42 42 29 27 17 17 7 12 -1 11 20 18 15 200 MB DIV 29 22 38 31 11 22 26 53 64 69 63 89 45 33 13 20 1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 2 7 1 4 0 0 3 3 7 12 8 LAND (KM) 126 136 153 193 187 180 162 106 6 -127 -231 -315 -318 -261 -188 -182 -160 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.4 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.5 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.6 95.6 95.4 95.3 95.4 95.9 96.6 97.6 98.9 99.9 100.6 100.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 6 6 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 61 63 73 80 68 64 63 40 19 14 9 6 6 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -23. -29. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -8. -7. -9. -6. -9. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -6. -4. -8. -10. -19. -21. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.6 95.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 09/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.83 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 15.1% 9.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.8% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.7% 4.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.2% 2.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 09/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 09/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 24 25 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 27 26 24 22 23 24 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 22 20 18 19 20 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT