* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 09/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 32 33 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 32 33 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 29 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 26 26 28 37 34 33 31 31 36 41 49 54 59 55 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -5 0 4 0 4 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -9 -16 SHEAR DIR 242 249 251 254 249 258 244 253 244 253 238 243 237 253 264 285 293 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.5 31.1 30.8 30.1 30.5 31.3 31.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 165 168 169 168 168 168 168 169 170 170 170 170 170 169 169 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 6 3 5 1 4 0 3 0 5 2 6 2 6 700-500 MB RH 76 71 70 67 66 62 59 56 56 54 54 55 56 56 58 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 13 13 14 12 9 6 6 5 2 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 20 32 53 47 25 21 15 2 -9 1 -17 0 -6 -15 -24 -39 200 MB DIV 55 45 35 43 38 0 28 17 32 29 60 54 69 27 3 -9 -41 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 2 -6 -11 -1 3 6 0 11 6 5 4 6 2 8 LAND (KM) 103 93 103 131 164 267 274 237 166 77 5 -90 -212 -318 -418 -498 -572 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.8 26.2 27.0 28.1 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.0 94.7 94.4 94.4 94.8 95.5 96.4 97.4 98.1 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 50 56 62 103 103 88 70 53 55 19 6 5 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 16. 17. 20. 23. 25. 24. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -7. -13. -19. -24. -30. -38. -46. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -13. -16. -20. -19. -21. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 0. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -35. -40. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.9 95.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 09/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.74 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 14.6% 9.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.7% 4.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 4.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 09/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 09/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 32 33 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 30 31 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT