* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 09/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 37 35 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 37 35 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 29 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 22 27 26 35 32 36 28 34 32 44 46 52 63 61 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -1 2 5 1 4 0 1 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 260 234 239 244 250 244 250 256 250 251 259 259 250 253 255 269 287 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 29.9 29.2 31.3 31.7 31.8 31.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 159 159 164 166 169 168 167 167 168 169 165 153 170 170 168 167 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 5 5 2 3 1 3 1 4 2 6 1 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 71 70 66 61 55 49 47 45 46 46 48 52 55 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 15 15 14 11 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 43 23 36 61 47 36 29 25 12 8 -19 -24 -49 -29 -47 -23 200 MB DIV 47 68 60 49 59 24 38 -6 18 14 8 40 40 43 41 13 -7 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 3 5 6 19 10 22 9 2 1 LAND (KM) 97 84 84 98 126 223 309 350 339 297 214 112 -3 -127 -254 -344 -398 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.6 27.2 28.1 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.6 94.0 93.6 93.5 93.7 93.8 94.3 94.7 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 3 4 4 1 2 2 5 5 6 7 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 46 48 48 65 86 89 93 91 70 47 44 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 21. 24. 26. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -28. -36. -44. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 10. 5. -0. -7. -11. -13. -16. -23. -31. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.0 95.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 09/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.70 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 14.3% 9.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 7.9% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 7.5% 4.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.4% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 09/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 09/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 37 35 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 34 32 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 29 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT