* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/15/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 31 27 28 33 38 40 40 38 41 43 48 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 31 27 28 33 38 40 40 38 41 43 48 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 24 23 21 21 21 21 21 22 24 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 21 31 41 42 45 39 38 33 33 27 25 15 12 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 5 2 1 9 4 5 0 0 0 7 15 15 21 14 11 SHEAR DIR 252 255 241 219 223 209 217 211 221 244 257 248 246 238 220 244 243 SST (C) 25.9 25.6 24.9 25.1 25.6 24.2 22.0 17.4 13.5 13.5 16.7 16.4 14.2 13.0 12.1 10.2 8.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 107 110 114 102 89 73 67 67 75 79 76 72 70 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.9 -53.3 -54.7 -55.7 -56.6 -55.8 -54.0 -52.2 -49.7 -47.2 -47.1 -47.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 54 47 38 38 44 46 41 49 55 59 65 70 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 13 16 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 40 61 62 67 75 47 -26 -31 -72 -66 -45 5 111 121 44 17 200 MB DIV 68 62 53 56 72 33 5 9 1 -28 30 20 28 18 13 -16 -27 700-850 TADV 17 3 8 -2 -29 -46 -51 -23 -10 -4 32 -13 26 30 16 38 34 LAND (KM) 283 377 544 610 650 668 702 584 501 501 652 1272 1009 281 236 425 57 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.2 35.9 36.6 37.4 39.1 40.4 41.4 42.6 43.9 45.9 47.6 49.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.9 71.6 69.7 67.3 64.8 59.9 55.7 52.6 50.3 48.0 44.4 35.7 23.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 19 21 21 20 15 11 11 12 23 38 38 29 24 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 15. 16. 20. 26. 31. 33. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 3. -2. -5. -7. -7. -10. -13. -14. -10. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -1. 2. 2. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -2. 3. 8. 10. 10. 8. 11. 13. 18. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.6 72.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/15/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.23 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 7.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/15/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/15/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 31 27 28 33 38 40 40 38 41 43 48 59 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 29 25 26 31 36 38 38 36 39 41 46 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 26 22 23 28 33 35 35 33 36 38 43 54 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT