* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/14/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 33 32 26 21 27 34 41 44 42 46 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 33 32 26 21 27 34 41 44 42 38 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 22 25 34 47 55 46 25 15 27 26 29 26 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 10 7 14 21 26 22 17 30 33 23 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 246 246 239 204 200 192 195 208 233 263 270 273 262 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.8 24.6 24.2 22.8 15.6 8.5 10.8 8.6 9.1 9.7 8.1 10.4 8.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 105 104 96 75 70 73 71 69 69 68 68 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -49.7 -46.6 -45.1 -45.3 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.2 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 62 56 41 34 43 55 62 63 62 63 61 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 11 11 10 9 13 13 12 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 23 37 71 75 87 48 85 -42 -22 12 -18 23 -57 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 74 72 61 41 37 29 52 17 27 38 -19 -108 -268 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 23 -1 25 -21 -101 -137 -124 -9 29 46 36 18 -13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 218 319 472 484 515 386 105 596 1147 457 123 396 211 -54 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.6 36.5 37.6 38.8 42.0 45.7 50.6 56.1 60.4 62.4 63.3 64.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.7 72.2 70.3 68.0 65.2 59.4 53.1 45.3 36.4 27.6 17.7 6.4 -4.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 20 23 26 28 32 39 36 28 26 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 21. 29. 37. 41. 46. 55. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. -19. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -3. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. -4. -9. -3. 4. 11. 14. 12. 16. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.6 73.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/14/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.23 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.29 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 7.4% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/14/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/14/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 33 32 26 21 27 34 41 44 42 38 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 31 30 24 19 25 32 39 42 40 36 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT