* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/14/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 35 38 38 41 45 35 31 37 38 34 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 35 38 38 41 45 35 31 37 38 34 31 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 27 27 25 24 25 27 26 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 42 34 34 36 33 37 41 37 34 34 32 26 19 18 17 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -2 -7 1 -5 -1 -7 -8 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 258 248 245 253 255 245 244 229 268 258 268 272 332 12 22 48 46 SST (C) 28.3 27.3 25.5 24.9 24.7 25.2 23.3 23.1 23.6 23.3 23.1 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.4 24.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 127 109 104 104 109 96 94 94 90 89 87 89 90 92 98 108 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -54.8 -56.0 -56.7 -56.8 -56.3 -56.0 -55.7 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 64 64 65 54 48 49 50 50 52 54 49 46 41 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 13 13 16 20 15 13 19 20 19 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -16 8 25 35 53 32 28 16 30 19 16 -34 -44 -85 -74 -71 200 MB DIV 30 11 86 86 44 54 29 64 -2 13 11 -11 -18 -18 -43 -28 -25 700-850 TADV 9 10 14 8 1 12 -9 -4 1 0 2 5 0 0 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 246 245 254 302 379 637 895 1050 1193 1261 1252 1181 1114 1091 1136 1239 1370 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.4 32.8 33.0 33.3 34.1 34.6 34.7 34.2 34.1 34.3 34.9 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.9 76.1 75.1 74.0 72.7 69.0 65.1 61.2 58.7 57.4 57.2 57.5 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 13 17 16 14 8 3 3 3 3 3 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 2. -1. 6. 7. 5. 0. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 8. 8. 11. 15. 5. 1. 7. 8. 4. 1. -0. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.9 76.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/14/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.43 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.9% 5.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/14/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/14/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 35 38 38 41 45 35 31 37 38 34 31 30 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 36 36 39 43 33 29 35 36 32 29 28 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 31 31 34 38 28 24 30 31 27 24 23 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 23 26 30 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT