* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902024 06/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 31 31 28 26 21 23 25 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 31 31 28 26 21 23 25 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 24 26 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 38 38 40 33 35 29 39 32 39 27 26 16 17 12 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 4 1 -3 -5 -7 0 -5 -1 -2 -7 -6 -6 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 267 253 251 255 250 247 240 222 232 243 239 237 233 211 122 107 101 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.9 25.0 24.7 24.8 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.1 23.5 25.1 25.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 138 131 122 105 104 105 96 96 93 97 98 95 106 107 113 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 -53.2 -54.6 -55.6 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -55.6 -55.8 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 3 700-500 MB RH 60 63 64 65 68 68 64 52 50 46 47 44 43 39 42 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 10 12 12 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -19 -17 -36 -25 6 52 44 37 31 39 23 18 -18 -3 -46 -49 200 MB DIV 48 51 65 27 2 66 55 47 2 22 23 19 -3 -13 -15 -33 9 700-850 TADV 15 18 7 -1 7 10 2 -2 -11 -7 -1 0 4 1 2 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 194 280 287 303 299 327 450 692 941 1102 1165 1159 1047 856 628 454 311 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.7 32.4 33.1 33.8 34.1 33.5 33.2 33.0 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 78.3 77.5 76.9 76.2 74.4 71.9 68.5 65.2 62.9 62.2 62.7 64.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 7 8 9 14 14 12 6 2 5 9 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 22 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 6. -0. -6. -12. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -6. -5. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -4. -2. -0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.0 79.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902024 INVEST 06/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902024 INVEST 06/13/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902024 INVEST 06/13/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 31 31 28 26 21 23 25 28 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 28 28 25 23 18 20 22 25 26 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 24 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT